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☆ Dollar steady against euro, yen on intervention watch as it hits one-week low
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Traders also remained on alert for potential intervention in the Japanese currency as it rose above the 151 level against the dollar, its weakest level in a week. “The dollar is vulnerable to weaker data going forward," said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. "We’re transitioning to a sort of sell dollar rallies environment, after the buy dollar dips trend that we’ve seen really since the middle of the year." The dollar gained 0.41% to 151.03 Japanese yen , heading back towards levels that have investors on watch for currency intervention.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Shaun Osborne, ”, Osborne, Jerome Powell, Powell, Nick Bennenbroek, Francesco Pesole, Karen Brettell, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Samuel Indyk, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Scotiabank, U.S, ING, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, Toronto

Bostic was partly responding to the outburst of violence in Israel and Gaza, said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet in New York. "You can pretty much count on the Fed taking that into its world view and that's only going to be lower rates." U.S. Treasuries rallied, pushing two-year yields to their lowest in a month, as safe-haven demand was driven by the ongoing Mideast bloodshed and dovish Fed comments. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury , which moves inversely to the price, was down 12.5 basis points at 4.6571%. The Swiss franc , a traditional safe-haven currency, was at 0.9045 to the dollar, which weakened about 0.21%.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Joseph Trevisani, Treasuries, Shaun Osborne, Israel's shekel, They're, Chris Turner, Herbert Lash, Harry Robertson, Tom Westbrook, Simon Cameron, Moore, Susan Fenton, Sharon Singleton, Jonathan Oatis, Mark Heinrich, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed, American Bankers Association, U.S, Scotiabank, Traders, Bloomberg, Analysts, Columbus, Kyodo, Bank of Japan, . Treasury, ING, Swiss, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Israel, Gaza, New York, Toronto, Palestinian, London, Singapore

U.S. bond investors nonetheless dialled back their bets of a rate hike in November and December following Powell's remarks, though Treasury yields traded near break-even by late morning. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was steady at 4.2314% and the two-year yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, rose to 5.0735%. "We've seen a back-off in ECB rate hike expectations. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Yahoo Finance's video channel that rates may be near or at a peak, "but certainly additional increments are possible." Tokyo consumer price data on Friday, which front-runs nationwide figures, showed inflation remained well above the Bank of Japan's target.

Persons: Toby Melville, Jerome Powell, Powell, David Sadkin, Dow Jones, Christine, Lagarde, Ben Laidler, Patrick Harker, Susan Collins, Shaun Osborne, Joseph Capurso, Kazuo Ueda, Jackson, Brent, Samuel Indyk, Kevin Buckland, Jacqueline Wong, Mark Potter, Chizu Nomiyama, Susan Fenton, Diane Craft, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters, Philadelphia Fed, CNBC, Boston, Yahoo, U.S, Scotiabank, Bank of, Bank of Japan, CBA, West Texas, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Asia, Tokyo

☆ Shares whipsaw as Fed weighs inflation risks, yields steady
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

If you're a bear, you heard him say we're going to be restrictive, and we might hike rates," said David Sadkin, president at Bel Air Investment Advisors. U.S. rates investors nonetheless dialled back their bets of a rate hike in November and December following Powell's remarks, though Treasury yields traded near break-even by late morning. "We've seen a back off in ECB rate hike expectations. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Yahoo Finance's video channel that rates may be near or at a peak, "but certainly additional increments are possible." Tokyo consumer price data on Friday, which front-runs nationwide figures, showed inflation remained well above the Bank of Japan's target.

Persons: Toby Melville, Jerome Powell, Powell, David Sadkin, Dow Jones, Christine, Lagarde, Ben Laidler, Patrick Harker, Susan Collins, Shaun Osborne, Joseph Capurso, Kazuo Ueda, Jackson, Brent, Samuel Indyk, Kevin Buckland, Jacqueline Wong, Mark Potter, Chizu Nomiyama, Susan Fenton Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Philadelphia Fed, CNBC, Boston, Yahoo, U.S, Scotiabank, Bank of, Bank of Japan, CBA, West Texas, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Asia, Tokyo

[1/2] Chinese Yuan and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. That represented the highest annual growth rate since comparable records began in 2001. "BoE Sep rate hike bets have jumped ... providing support for the GBP," said Scotiabank chief FX strategist Shaun Osborne. The yuan briefly bounced back as major state-owned banks were seen selling dollars to support the local currency. Punctuating those worries, Chinese data on industrial output, retail sales and investment released shortly after the PBOC's rate cut showed unexpected slowdowns.

Persons: Yuan, Dado Ruvic, Sterling, BoE, Shaun Osborne, Scotiabank's Osborne, Osborne, Shinichiro Kadota, Shunichi Suzuki, Joice Alves, Samuel Indyk, Brigid Riley, Kevin Buckland, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of, Kremlin, Bank of England, Scotiabank, People's Bank of China, U.S, Traders, Barclays, Finance, Thomson Locations: Russian

☆ Rate convergence keeps Canadian dollar shackled to U.S. counterpart
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Money markets are pricing in a peak interest rate of about 5.25% for the Bank of Canada over the coming months, not much less than the 5.42% terminal rate that is priced in for the Fed. Canadian GDP data for May, due on Friday, could guide expectations for additional BoC rate hikes. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3227 to the greenback, or 75.60 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3159 to 1.3236. "The Canadian dollar still looks cheap relative to where it should be," Osborne said, pointing to recent convergence of Canadian and U.S. yields, improved risk appetite and higher commodity prices. The Canadian 5-year yield touched its highest since December 2007 at 4.030% before dipping to 4.019%, up 13.9 basis points on the day.

Persons: Price, Shaun Osborne, Osborne, Fergal Smith, Nick Zieminski Organizations: greenback, Canadian, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Scotiabank, Fed, BoC, Thomson Locations: TORONTO, U.S

[1/2] U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. Markets are now focusing their attention on U.S. consumer prices data due out on Wednesday, which will provide more clarity on the progress the Fed has made in its fight against stubbornly high inflation. The pound has been rallying on a stronger economy and aggressive repricing of expectations for tighter BoE policy, according to Danske Bank FX analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen. "There have been no signs of relief in the labour market data and markets continue to price in more. Given the rising inflation backdrop in Japan, the market is starting to become more wary that perhaps a policy tweak could come."

Persons: Rick Wilking, Shaun Osborne, Kirstine Kundby, That's, Kundby, Nielsen, Moh Siong Sim, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Edmund Klamann, Alex Richardson, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Scotiabank . Markets, Sterling, Bank of England, Danske Bank, Nielsen, Swiss, greenback, Swiss National Bank, Singapore, Bank of Japan, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S, Norwegian, Swedish, Swiss, Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

U.S. interest rate expectations have been a key driver of the dollar since the Fed began its tightening cycle last year. A survey from the New York Federal Reserve on Monday showed waning near-term inflation expectations among Americans, who said last month they were expecting the weakest near-term inflation gains in just over two years. Sterling , meanwhile, hit a near 15-month high of $1.2913 after British wage growth hit a joint record high, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to tighten policy further to bring inflation under control. The pound has been rallying on a stronger economy and aggressive repricing of expectations for tighter BoE policy, according to Danske Bank FX analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen. Elsewhere, the euro rose 0.1% to $1.1012, the Australian dollar steadied at $0.6680, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.2% to $0.6198.

Persons: Rick Wilking, Shaun Osborne, Sterling, Kirstine Kundby, That's, Kundby, Nielsen, Moh Siong Sim, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam, Edmund Klamann, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Scotiabank . Markets, New York Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Danske Bank, Nielsen, Singapore, Bank of Japan, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S, . U.S, Japan, China's

As widely expected, the BOJ maintained its -0.1% short-term interest rate target and a 0% cap on the 10-year bond yield set under its yield curve control (YCC) policy. The yen fell broadly following the decision and hit a fresh 15-year low of 154.70 per euro and was set for the biggest weekly decline against the single currency in three years. Reuters GraphicsFED FACES GRIM DATAThe ECB's monetary policy decision came a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, snapping a string of 10 consecutive rate hikes. Production at U.S. factories almost stalled in May as manufacturing struggled under the weight of higher interest rates, while U.S. import prices similarly fell last month. Against a basket of currencies , the dollar index edged up 0.03% to 102.17, after slipping to a one-month low on Thursday.

Persons: we're, Kazuo Ueda, Hirofumi Suzuki, Goldman Sachs, Christine Lagarde, Shaun Osborne, Joice Alves, Rae Wee, Philippa Fletcher, Sohini Organizations: LONDON, Bank of Japan, European, Bank's, U.S, ECB, Sterling, Bank of England, Reuters Graphics, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Labor Department, Scotiabank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, United States, Europe, Toronto, London, Singapore

☆ Euro advances, surges to 15-year peak vs yen, after ECB lifts rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Euro and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The ECB lifted rates by 25 basis points (bps), as expected, to 3.5%, the highest in 22 years. "There were hawkish elements in the latest ECB press conference, in particular the upwardly revised 2025 inflation forecasts. Versus the yen, the euro rose 1.2% to 153.52 , hitting 153.68 yen, the highest since September 2008, following the ECB decision. We have assumed for some time that the rate-cycle peak would be a negative for the dollar peak yields will bolster risk-taking and encourage investors to deploy capital away from the U.S.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Mark Wall, Christine, Lagarde, Jerome Powell, Shaun Osborne, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Samuel Indyk, Rocky Swift, Shweta Agarwal, Emelia, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, YORK, European Central Bank, ECB, Deutsche Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of, Scotiabank, U.S ., Reuters, U.S . Labor Department, Thomson Locations: Bank of Japan, Toronto, New York, London

☆ Dollar gains, euro dips after cautious ECB
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 4 (Reuters) - The dollar gained against the euro after the European Central Bank eased its pace of rate hikes, a day after the Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25 basis points and indicated that it may pause further increases. The Fed on Wednesday dropped from its policy statement language saying that it "anticipates" further rate increases would be needed. The dollar index was last up 0.30% on the day at 101.52. The greenback was last down 0.17% against the Norwegian crown at 10.73 after Norway's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. ========================================================Currency bid prices at 10:18AM (1418 GMT)Reporting by Rae Wee Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

"Sterling markets will continue to digest yesterday’s Budget delivered by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt as well as the broader global environment. Markets remain ambivalent whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates next week," said Hann-Ju Ho, senior Economist, Commercial Banking at Lloyds Bank. The European Central Bank (ECB), meanwhile, is a little behind the BoE in its quest to fight inflation. Traders attach a 60% chance of the ECB raising rates by 50 bps on Thursday, with a 40% chance of 25 bps. Money markets show investors expect ECB rates to peak around 3% later this year, compared with a peak of 4% just over a week ago.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) slipped 0.50% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.71%. Emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) dropped 0.94%. In currencies, the safe-haven Swiss franc and Japanese yen gained, while the Aussie dollar and Chinese yuan underperformed. CHINA FEARSIn Treasuries Benchmark 10-year notes were down 2.8 basis points to 3.674%, from 3.702% late on Friday. The 30-year bond was last down 2.7 basis points to yield 3.725%, from 3.752%, while the 2-year note was down 3.9 basis points to yield 4.4402%.

☆ Sterling dips as market trims BoE rate hike bets, yen scrabbles off 32-yr low
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The battered Japanese yen traded near a 32-year trough to the dollar at 149 yen, putting the major psychological barrier of 150 in focus. ING expects now a 75 basis-point rate hike in November rather a full-point move expected before the fiscal policy U-turn, Smith added. The euro was volatile weakened against the dollar following German investor sentiment data, which albeit less pessimistic than expected, still painted a bleak picture of Europe's biggest economy. The dollar index which measures its performance against six major currencies, including sterling, the euro and the yen - was last down 0.1% at 112.00. Britain's policy U-turn saw the risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar surge more than 1%, already lifted by hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data, boosting bets for further rate hikes.

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